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Judy Dickey, Broker
Current Market Conditions
Contra Costa County,
California
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda,
Walnut Creek and the
Greater Diablo Valley
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Market Snapshot: May 1, 2008

High Inventory+Lower Prices+Lower
Interest Rates=
2008,
the Best Year to Buy a Home in Years!
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There
are 3 important factors that are aligned quite favorably
for buyers right now.
(1) Higher
inventory: in many price ranges
there is more inventory of homes for
sale than we've had since the early to
mid 1990's. In our hottest markets,
there has usually been limited inventory, lots
of competition and escalating prices.
(2)
Lower prices: in our local areas,
prices have softened to 2004-2006 levels
in many communities (but NOT ALL). Check
the chart at the bottom of the page for
specifics.
(3) Lower interest rates: rates are
very desirable now. They were at
similar levels in the early 2000's but
then there was a SCARCITY of homes,
prices were escalating and buyers often
had to pay more than they had planned.
Interest rates now continue to be low for buyers with
good credit.
(example from a local lender-5/5/08:
30 year conforming loans $200-$417,000
now are about 6.125% (zero points),
jumbo $417,001 to $650,000 are 6.750%
and super jumbo $650,000 plus are
7.625%.)
The last time there were high inventory
levels, lower prices and rates in the
6%+ range was during the early 1970's!
The Bay Area Has Fared Better
(outlying
areas like eastern Contra Costa have
not)
"The Bay Area, in general, has fared
better than many other parts of
California. "Other parts of the state
have been hit harder by the downturn in
the housing market than the Bay Area.
Most of the distress is in areas that
absorbed spillover activity during the
2004 and 2005 frenzy. For the most part,
that's the Central Valley and inland
Southern California. It still appears
that a lot of Bay Area activity is just
on hold, waiting for the mortgage
markets to open back up,"
according to
Marshall Prentice, president of DataQuick
Information Systems,
April 17, 2008, at
www.dataquick.com.
Quick Look:
5 local communities
Here's a snapshot below of
recent market
activity
in 5 selected local
communities.
9/1/07
to 10/5/07
in blue
10/6/07 to 11/06/07 in red
11/06/07 to 12/06/07 in
green
12/07/07 to 1/06/08 in
burgundy
1/06/08 to 2/06/08 in
black
2/06/08 to 3/06/08
pink
3/06/08 to 4/05/08
green
04/05/08 to 5/05/08
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Closed Prices/Asking
Prices |
| |
At Asking |
Under Asking |
Over Asking |
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Alamo |
3/0/0/0/0/0/1 |
9/7/4/5/4/11/8/10 |
1/1/1/0/0/1/0 |
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Danville |
3/0/2/2/1/2/0/3 |
19/23/13/17/11/29/24/19 |
0/1/2/0/1/0/1 |
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Walnut Creek |
1/
6/3/5/2/2/1/4 |
18/13/14/14/13/29/22/18 |
4/1/0/2/1/2/8/4 |
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Lafayette |
2/
4/1/0/0/1/5 |
5/12/6/6/4/8/12/7 |
5/6/3/2/0/5/4 |
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Orinda |
1/
9/2/1/1/3/1/3 |
8/9/8/6/8/12/3/3 |
2/3/2/2/2/4/5 |
Conclusions: In
the last month, 16 buyers
paid ASKING price for their
purchases, and 14 buyers
paid OVER asking price. This
would indicate there was
competition for the purchase
with other buyers, that the
house had just gone on the
market, or another scenario.
These are very positive
signs in our local markets.
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Pending Sales
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# Current Pending
Sales
(in escrow, have not
closed)
Sept-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May |
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Alamo |
8/10/10/11/9/14/18/17 |
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Danville |
37/29/33/25/27/41/39/45 |
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Walnut Creek |
28/33/32/25/36/37/37/47/52 |
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Lafayette |
20/19/14/10/11/31/33/46 |
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Orinda |
15/14/14/10/14/13/16/20 |
March, April, May, June should be "prime-time" in our markets. It
looks like that's exactly what's happening this year. This data shows
there are 180 homes in these 5 areas that are now in escrow, probably in
the last 30 days. While the numbers of closed sales are certainly down
in most communities over last year (see below), the pending sales are very good signs of a healthy, active market.
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Closed Sales Reported to CCAR MLS
Selected Communities
Single
Family Detached Homes
5/1/08
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Active
Listings
(1st of month) |
Closed Sales
Year-to-Date
end of month |
AVERAGE
Closed Sales Prices |
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Area
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5/07 |
5/08 |
% |
5/07 |
5/08 |
% |
2007 |
ytd 2008 |
% |
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Alamo |
80 |
105 |
+31% |
53 |
32 |
-40% |
$1,693,116 |
$1,585,951 |
-6% |
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Blackhawk |
53 |
75 |
+42% |
29 |
15 |
-48% |
$1,569,439 |
$1,375,468 |
-12% |
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Clayton |
74 |
59 |
-20% |
31 |
26 |
-16% |
$782,120 |
$666,586 |
-15% |
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Concord |
470 |
472 |
+.4% |
270 |
211 |
-22% |
$561,986 |
$420,186 |
-25% |
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Danville |
162 |
209 |
+29% |
162 |
92 |
-43% |
$1,133,915 |
$1,015,879 |
-10% |
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Dublin |
128 |
131 |
+2% |
94 |
52 |
-45% |
$785,153 |
$663,106 |
-16% |
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Lafayette |
70 |
98 |
+40% |
97 |
49 |
-49% |
$1,299,129 |
$1,312,932 |
+1% |
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Livermore |
348 |
389 |
+12% |
295 |
171 |
-42% |
$731,432 |
$639,392 |
-13% |
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Martinez |
172 |
163 |
-5% |
104 |
59 |
-43% |
$561,863 |
$490,932 |
-13% |
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Moraga |
18 |
20 |
+11% |
26 |
25 |
-04% |
$1,210,608 |
$1,061,750 |
-12% |
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Orinda |
68 |
66 |
-3% |
49 |
36 |
-27% |
$1,295,071 |
$1,221,703 |
-6% |
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Pleasant H |
98 |
99 |
+1% |
84 |
44 |
-48% |
$675,413 |
$596,211 |
-12% |
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Pleasanton |
183 |
223 |
+22% |
216 |
103 |
-52% |
$1,033,243 |
$1,074,857 |
+4% |
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San
Ramon |
199 |
244 |
+23% |
247 |
148 |
-40% |
$918,315 |
$848,949 |
-8% |
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Walnut Cr |
137 |
181 |
+32% |
31 |
26 |
-16% |
$982,109 |
$893,777 |
-9% |
Conclusions: (1) The
inventory is slowing in some communities (of
course some price ranges may have many more
choices than others). If you are a buyer and
want a good selection of homes to choose
from, you'll be more likely to find more
choices than in recent years. (2) The
numbers of closed sales are down
significantly in most all communities
indicating there
must be many buyers sitting on the sidelines
for various reasons. (3) Prices have also
declined in most communities but there are
two exceptions. The number of closed sales
are down in Lafayette and Pleasanton over
last year but prices are still UP
over 2007 in both communities.
These numbers of course do
not necessarily apply to all homes. The
stats above are just averages. Some homes in
our area are still selling quickly at
full price or even over asking price as
shown above in the Quick Look: 5
Communities. With so many fewer sales
this year, price averages may not be as
accurate a reflection of overall value of
homes in a community as they might have been
last year when there were so many more
sales.

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Charts of Monthly Average
Sales Prices for 2003-2008
Single Family Detached HomesClick on the links below for
individual charts for each community.
Alamo
Blackhawk
Danville
San Ramon
Moraga
Orinda
Walnut Creek
Clayton
Pleasant Hill
Martinez
Concord
Dublin
Pleasanton
Data above copyright© Contra Costa Association of Realtors®, 2008
Information is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed and is intended only as a general market snapshot. Homes not reported
to our MLS are not included.
This market compilation copyright© www.judydickey.com, 2008,
and www.ourremarket.com,
2008
All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.
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