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     Judy Dickey, Broker

        Current Market Conditions


       Contra Costa County, California
        Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda,
     Walnut Creek and the
      Greater Diablo Valley


 

Market Snapshot: May 1, 2008




High Inventory+Lower Prices+Lower Interest Rates=
2008, the Best Year to Buy a Home in Years!
 

There are 3 important factors that are aligned quite favorably for buyers right now.
(1) Higher inventory: in many price ranges there is more inventory of homes for sale than we've had since the early to mid 1990's. In our hottest markets, there has usually been limited inventory, lots of competition and escalating prices.
(2) Lower prices: in our local areas, prices have softened to 2004-2006 levels in many communities (but NOT ALL). Check the chart at the bottom of the page for specifics.
(3) Lower interest rates: rates are very desirable now. They were at similar levels in the early 2000's but then there was a SCARCITY of homes, prices were escalating and buyers often had to pay more than they had planned. Interest rates now continue to be low for buyers with good credit. (example from a local lender-5/5/08: 30 year conforming loans $200-$417,000 now are about 6.125% (zero points), jumbo $417,001 to $650,000 are 6.750% and super jumbo $650,000 plus are 7.625%.)

The last time there were high inventory levels, lower prices and rates in the 6%+ range was during the early 1970's!

The Bay Area Has Fared Better
(outlying areas like eastern Contra Costa have not)

"The Bay Area, in general, has fared better than many other parts of California. "Other parts of the state have been hit harder by the downturn in the housing market than the Bay Area. Most of the distress is in areas that absorbed spillover activity during the 2004 and 2005 frenzy. For the most part, that's the Central Valley and inland Southern California. It still appears that a lot of Bay Area activity is just on hold, waiting for the mortgage markets to open back up," according to Marshall Prentice, president of DataQuick Information Systems, April 17, 2008, at www.dataquick.com.

 

Quick Look:
5 local communities

Here's a snapshot below of recent market activity in 5 selected local communities.
 

9/1/07 to 10/5/07 in blue
10/6/07 to 11/06/07 in red

11/06/07 to 12/06/07 in green

12/07/07 to 1/06/08 in burgundy
1/06/08 to 2/06/08 in black
2/06/08 to 3/06/08 pink
3/06/08 to 4/05/08 green
04/05/08 to 5/05/08

                                                                         Closed Prices/Asking Prices
  At Asking Under Asking Over Asking
Alamo 3/0/0/0/0/0/1 9/7/4/5/4/11/8/10 1/1/1/0/0/1/0
Danville 3/0/2/2/1/2/0/3 19/23/13/17/11/29/24/19 0/1/2/0/1/0/1
Walnut Creek 1/ 6/3/5/2/2/1/4 18/13/14/14/13/29/22/18 4/1/0/2/1/2/8/4
Lafayette 2/ 4/1/0/0/1/5 5/12/6/6/4/8/12/7 5/6/3/2/0/5/4
Orinda 1/ 9/2/1/1/3/1/3 8/9/8/6/8/12/3/3 2/3/2/2/2/4/5

Conclusions: In the last month, 16 buyers paid ASKING price for their purchases, and 14 buyers paid OVER asking price. This would indicate there was competition for the purchase with other buyers, that the house had just gone on the market, or another  scenario. These are very positive signs in our local markets.
 

  Pending Sales
  # Current Pending Sales
(in escrow, have not closed)
Sept-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-
Mar-Apr-May
Alamo 8/10/10/11/9/14/18/17
Danville 37/29/33/25/27/41/39/45
Walnut Creek 28/33/32/25/36/37/37/47/52
Lafayette 20/19/14/10/11/31/33/46
Orinda 15/14/14/10/14/13/16/20

March, April, May, June should be "prime-time" in our markets. It looks like that's exactly what's happening this year. This data shows there are 180 homes in these 5 areas that are now in escrow, probably in the last 30 days. While the numbers of closed sales are certainly down in most communities over last year (see below), the pending sales are very good signs of a healthy, active market.

  ______________
 

Closed Sales Reported to CCAR MLS

Selected Communities
Single Family Detached Homes

5/1/08

  Active
Listings
(1st of month)

   Closed Sales
Year-to-Date
end of month

AVERAGE
Closed Sales Prices

 Area


5/07

5/08


%


5/07   


5/08 
 


%


2007


ytd 2008


%

 Alamo

80 105 +31%

53

32 -40% $1,693,116 $1,585,951 -6%

 Blackhawk

53 75 +42%

29

15 -48% $1,569,439 $1,375,468 -12%

 Clayton

74 59 -20%

 31

26 -16% $782,120 $666,586 -15%

 Concord

470 472 +.4%

270

211 -22% $561,986 $420,186 -25%

 Danville

162 209 +29%

162

92 -43% $1,133,915 $1,015,879 -10%

 Dublin

128 131 +2%

94

52 -45% $785,153 $663,106 -16%

 Lafayette

70 98 +40%

97

49 -49% $1,299,129 $1,312,932 +1%

 Livermore

348 389 +12%

295

171 -42% $731,432 $639,392 -13%

 Martinez

172 163 -5%

 104

59 -43% $561,863 $490,932 -13%

 Moraga

18 20 +11%

26

25 -04% $1,210,608 $1,061,750 -12%

 Orinda

68 66 -3%

49

36 -27% $1,295,071 $1,221,703 -6%

 Pleasant H

98 99 +1%

84

44 -48% $675,413 $596,211 -12%

 Pleasanton

183 223 +22%

216

103

-52% $1,033,243 $1,074,857 +4%

 San Ramon

199 244 +23%

247

148

-40% $918,315 $848,949 -8%

 Walnut Cr

137 181 +32%

31

 26

-16% $982,109    $893,777 -9%

Conclusions: (1) The inventory is slowing in some communities (of course some price ranges may have many more choices than others). If you are a buyer and want a good selection of homes to choose from, you'll be more likely to find more choices than in recent years. (2) The numbers of closed sales are down significantly in most all communities indicating there must be many buyers sitting on the sidelines for various reasons. (3) Prices have also declined in most communities but there are two exceptions. The number of closed sales are down in Lafayette and Pleasanton over last year but prices are still UP over 2007 in both communities.

These numbers of course do not necessarily apply to all homes. The stats above are just averages. Some homes in our area are still selling quickly at full price or even over asking price as shown above in the Quick Look: 5 Communities. With so many fewer sales this year, price averages may not be as accurate a reflection of overall value of homes in a community as they might have been last year when there were so many more sales.

___


       

____

 

 

Charts of Monthly Average

Sales Prices for 2003-2008

Single Family Detached Homes

Click on the links below for
 individual charts for each community.


Alamo
Blackhawk
Danville
San Ramon

Moraga
Orinda
Walnut Creek
Clayton
Pleasant Hill
Martinez
Concord
Dublin
Pleasanton
 

       Data above copyright© Contra Costa Association of Realtors®, 2008
Information is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed and is intended only as a general market snapshot. Homes not reported
 to our MLS are not included.

This market compilation copyright© www.judydickey.com, 2008,
and www.ourremarket.com, 2008
All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.

 

 

                        MY OTHER LOCAL REAL ESTATE WEB SITES:

                     
                       [Lafayette]
 
                     [Moraga]

                     [Orinda]

                      [Walnut Creek

                       Judy Dickey, CRS

                          Licensed Real Estate Broker, REALTOR®, State of California
                      BUYER/SELLER COACH
                           "I Help Buyers and Sellers Find
                              Very Experienced Local Agents"

                     Serving the East Bay areas: Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Walnut Creek and
              communities in the greater Diablo Valley

                     Certified Residential Specialist
                     e-PRO Certified Internet Professiona
l

               925-376-9458
           
  Moraga, CA

                      Zip codes: 94556, 94563, 94549,
                      94595, 94596,94597,94598

                   E-mail: judy@judydickey.com

                        

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                   Last updated: 05/13/08

 

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